According to a report written by Alexander Burns and published in the New York Times, Democrats must flip at least 23 Republican-held seats to retake the House this November. There are currently 66 highly competitive seats — those considered a tossup between the two parties or leaning slightly toward one — according to race ratings provided by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper.
As of August 13th:
The ratings for dozens of competitive congressional races have shifted in the direction of Democrats in recent months.
Democrats have seen the overall national environment move in their direction, and a handful of narrower developments have helped their candidates. Pennsylvania’s gerrymandered congressional map was redrawn. Republicans have battled legal scandal and other politically damaging revelations in New York, New Jersey and Minnesota.
Right now, 10 seats currently held by Republicans are either likely to be won by Democrats or lean slightly toward them, while another two dozen Republican-held seats are designated as tossups — political coin flips that could just as easily break in either direction. If Republicans lose the 10 seats that currently tilt to the Democrats, they must win at least half of their tossup seats in order to keep control.
There are also more than 50 other Republican-held seats that are contested enough to make Democratic victory at least a plausible possibility. Many of those are in conservative-leaning suburbs and rural areas in the Midwest and West.
If you would like to participate in helping California's swing districts go from red to blue, we encourage you to sign up for one of South Bay Swing Left's events in District 10. These include door-to-door canvassing and high traffic contact events as well as phone banking and postcard writing parties.